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The State of U.S. Restaurants 2025: Growth, Risk, and the Real Cost of Doing Business

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The U.S. restaurant industry continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience in 2025, bouncing back with projected revenues of $1.5 trillion—driven primarily by increased menu pricing rather than guest volume. However, behind this topline growth lies a more complex and challenging financial landscape, especially for independent and mid-sized operators.



High-Level Achievements

  • Revenue Growth: Industry sales are up 4.1% year-over-year, hitting all-time highs in total volume.

  • Menu Price Power: Operators successfully raised menu prices by ~31% since 2020, helping offset inflationary pressures.

  • Labor Market Recovery: The industry added over 200,000 jobs in 2025, reaching 15.9 million employed workers—signaling ongoing workforce stabilization.

  • Consumer Spend Stability: Despite fewer transactions, increased check averages have helped maintain revenue momentum.

High-Level Misses

  • Eroding Profit Margins: Average pre-tax net profits remain razor-thin at ~5%, with many operators unable to adjust fast enough to escalating costs.

  • Surging COGS: Cost of goods sold now exceeds 40% of revenue—a sharp increase from historical norms, driven by protein, produce, and supply inflation.

  • Tariff Pressures: New 2025 import tariffs could cost the industry $15B+ annually, affecting everything from coffee to packaging.

  • Persistent Labor Challenges: 70% of operators still report being understaffed, and turnover remains 75–80%, threatening operational continuity.



📊 Industry Financial Overview

Sales & Revenue Trends

  • In 2025, U.S. restaurant and foodservice sales are projected to reach $1.5 trillion, reflecting about 4.1–4.8 % real growth over 2024

  • Monthly sales have recently hovered around $98–99 billion; June 2025 saw $98.7 billion, up 0.6 % from May

  • Much of the growth stems from higher menu check averages rather than increased foot traffic, which has actually declined slightly


Profitability & COGS

  • Restaurants typically operate with a slim net pre‑tax profit margin of ~5%

  • COGS (cost of goods sold) ratios have risen to 40%+ of revenue—a significant increase over historic norms around 30%

    • With flat sales and no pricing adjustments, cost increases could swing a profit into a −24% loss scenario on the same revenue base


Menu Pricing & Inflation

  • Menu prices rose ~31% between Feb 2020 and Apr 2025, largely to offset inflation in food costs

  • Food costs (PPI for all foods) were up 36% from Feb 2020 by June 2025; year‑over‑year food inflation was ~4.7% in June, down from early‑2024 peaks near 9.7%


Protein, Produce & Tariffs

  • Producer prices in June 2025 vs year-ago:

    • Poultry: +9.6%, Beef/veal: +9.3%, Pork: +6.0%, Fresh fruit: +11.1%, coffee +31.8%, eggs +19.5%

  • New tariffs effective August 1, 2025, on imports from Mexico, EU, Brazil could cost U.S. restaurants up to $15.16 billion/year, impacting imports of coffee, beef, wine, packaging, etc.

  • Earlier high tariffs on Chinese goods (e.g., spices, containers) have pushed prices up and threatened authentic supply chains especially for niche restaurants


Labor Costs & Hiring

  • Labor costs account for approximately 25–40% of sales, varying by segment:

    • Quick service ~29.4%, fast casual ~28.9%, casual ~33.2%, upscale casual ~30.4%

  • In 2022, full‑service restaurants: median 36.5% of sales; limited‑service: 34.0%

  • Labor costs rose ~31% over four years, food costs ~29% over same period. Combined, they comprise about 66% of restaurant sales lra.org.

  • Employment is projected to hit 15.9 million jobs by end‑2025, adding 200K net new jobs in 2025, although full‑service still trails pre‑pandemic levels by ~233K positions

  • 70% of operators struggle to fill positions; turnover remains high at 75–80% annually


📈 Charts & KPIs

Metric

Value/Trend

Total Sales (2025)

$1.5 trillion (+4.1%)

Menu Price Change

+31% (Feb 2020 → Apr 2025)

COGS % of Revenue

~40% (up from ~30%)

Profit Margin (pre-tax)

~5%

Food Cost Inflation (YoY)

~4.7% (June 2025)

Protein & Produce Inflation

Poultry +9.6%, Beef +9.3%, Pork +6%, Fruit +11.1%, Eggs +19.5%, Coffee +31.8%

Labor Cost %

25–40% (segment-dependent)

Employment Growth (2025)

+200K jobs → 15.9M jobs total

Staffing & Turnover

70% short-staffed, turnover 75–80% annually

Tariff risk

$15B+ cost/year potential from new tariffs



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How We Support Small & Mid‑Size Hotel & Restaurant Groups

  • Menu engineering & pricing strategy: Align menu prices with real‑world cost inflation and help maintain profit margins (~5%) even as food and labor costs rise.

  • COGS and supplier optimization: Monitor protein/produce price trends, provide guidance on purchasing to offset new tariff effects, diversify sourcing, and manage margins.

  • Labor productivity & workforce planning: Benchmark labor cost metrics by segment, assist with staffing models, cross-training approaches, and retention strategies to reduce turnover.

  • Operational analytics: Track KPIs like COGS %, labor %, RPI trends, and help clients make data-driven decisions during volatile market conditions.

  • Ad hoc executive-level expertise: Provide financial modelling, competitive intelligence, and forecasting without the fixed expense of a full-time corporate F&B team.


Competitive Edge Gained

  • Smart pricing strategy keeps your margins healthy as inflation squeezes input costs.

  • Tariff-sensitive sourcing gives smaller operators a buffer against sudden import cost shocks.

  • Labor cost efficiency, with optimized staffing and retention, helps control the largest expense line.

  • Analytical sophistication typically only available to large chains—but now accessible to smaller businesses—levels the playing field.


📌 Final Thoughts

  • From 2020 to mid‑2025, menu prices rose ~31%, keeping pace with food cost inflation which rose ~29–36% in key categories.

  • COGS now eats ~40% of revenue, labor another ~30–35%, leaving only ~5% margin in a tight environment.

  • Tariffs threaten to increase supply costs further—up to $15B industry‑wide if new import duties take effect.

  • Labor shortages persist, with high turnover (75–80%) further exacerbating cost and inefficiency.


Vanguard F&B Thynk Tank helps fill critical gaps—menu strategy, sourcing, labor optimization, analytics—empowering small‑ and mid‑size operators to maintain competitive margins and operational resilience without the fixed costs of a corporate team.

Let me know if you’d like a tailored sample model or case study for a hotel group or regional restaurant chain!


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